People who understand sport but not betting, or in particular spread betting, dismiss the value of betting by gut. More times than I care to remember I have heard a person who is knowledgeable on sport say, ‘I feel that…’. This is loose talk but should not be dispelled when making your bet. If the bet doesn’t feel right it will more often than not be a loser for you.
For example, if you are playing the time of the first goal in a game between Manchester United and Arsenal, your research might indicate that the first goal in the game over the last ten years on average comes in the fiftieth minute of the match. The spread betting price will be around 37–40, and therefore you would surmise a buy is appropriate.
Always look at prices you wouldn’t like to be on before you look at prices you do want to be on. Choose an involatile market for your first bets; for example, total goals in a football match, bowlers’ wickets in a Test match or indeed total tries in a rugby game. Do your research. With the internet and the endless written material available to all it is very easy to make some statistical based assumptions about a game.